V2 Model
Statistical Analysis
Model calibration, performance analytics, and hypothesis testing
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Model AUC
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5-fold CV
All-time RTP
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96% = break-even threshold
Win Rate
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Net Units
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Avg Bet Size
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units
Total Events
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Cumulative P&L (All-time)
Units over time
Hypothesis Test
H0: Mean profit multiplier = 0.96 (break-even after vig)
H1: Mean profit multiplier > 0.96 (model generates edge)
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T-statistic--
p-value (one-sided)--
Significance--
Sample size--
Model Calibration
Performance Breakdown
RTP by market odds bracket. Red line = 96% break-even threshold.
RTP grouped by Kelly bet size. Larger bets signal higher model confidence.
Male Bouts
Female Bouts
Monthly Performance
| Month | Bets | Win Rate | Staked | Net Units | RTP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Prop Bet Performance
Prop Bets
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Win Rate
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RTP
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96% = break-even
Net Units
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By Prop Type
| Type | Count | Win Rate | Staked | Net Units |
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